Thailand's government cut its 2026 international arrivals forecast to 33 million from 36.7 million, with a 2027 target of at least 33 million. The downward revision carries reduced expectations into next year.
Despite the weaker outlook, hotel developers and airlines continue expanding in Thailand. Bangkok's luxury hotels are outperforming, while Phuket faces a wave of new openings. The mismatch between falling arrival forecasts and ongoing capacity growth raises questions about the demand assumptions behind new rooms and flights.